Market Hunch Deepens as International and Home Pressures Persist:
In October 2024, the Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex suffered notable drops of 6.22% and 5.83%, making this their weakest month-to-month efficiency since March 2020. Pushed by a mixture of international and home pressures, Indian equities declined sharply, with key indices hitting new lows for the month. This downward momentum has continued into November, however a brief uplift seen in the course of the Muhurat buying and selling day.
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The market confronted persistent weak spot because of softer-than-expected Q2 FY25 earnings, which forged doubt on the tempo of financial development. Many firms reported earnings under expectations, resulting in a wave of earnings downgrades and dampening investor sentiment. Among the many Nifty firms which have disclosed outcomes, earnings remained principally stagnant year-over-year, highlighting stress from subdued company efficiency in key sectors.
October additionally noticed one of many highest month-to-month international portfolio investor (FPI) outflows on report, with ₹1.14 lakh crore withdrawn from the secondary market, surpassing outflows seen on the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Regardless of this development, FPIs remained lively in major markets, with almost ₹20,000 crore invested, presumably reflecting selective alternatives amid excessive valuations within the secondary market.
The report outflows contributed to a weakening rupee, which dropped to an all-time low of ₹84.20 towards the US greenback. Moreover, China’s upcoming potential stimulus announcement, might additional influence capital flows from Indian markets.
On the home entrance, indicators of slowing city demand added to the market’s challenges, as rising dwelling prices and meals inflation have constrained shopper spending, eroding buying energy Heightened market volatility has additionally been pushed by exterior components, together with the strengthening US greenback, Center East geopolitical tensions, and rising crude oil costs.
Sectoral efficiency:
Throughout Indian equities, October introduced vital sectoral corrections in response to the broader market decline. The monetary sector confronted challenges amid considerations over slowing credit score demand and softened earnings development. The buyer items sector noticed pressures because of a noticeable pressure on city shopper spending, pushed by rising inflation and better dwelling prices. The automotive sector equally skilled a slowdown, with diminished shopper demand and elevated enter prices impacting gross sales and manufacturing. Infrastructure and engineering sectors struggled as authorities spending tapered off, constraining development inside these areas. Lastly, power and commodities have been impacted by broader market volatility and a current enhance in crude oil costs, which intensified the pressure on these sectors.
Within the following sections, we offer a extra complete examination and detailed insights of some main sectors:
Auto:
In October 2024, the auto sector displayed blended outcomes throughout segments, reflecting each development and challenges. The 2-wheeler (2W) market skilled sturdy momentum, with home wholesale volumes rising by round 11% year-over-year (YoY) and 6% month-over-month (MoM). Exports on this phase additionally rose by 23% YoY and a pair of% MoM. Home passenger car (PV) gross sales grew modestly at 1-3% YoY and noticed a 10-12% MoM increase, pushed primarily by choose producers, though positive aspects have been partially offset by underperformance amongst others. Business autos (CVs) confirmed secure gross sales YoY, with a MoM enhance of 9%, largely supported by excessive bus volumes, whereas medium and heavy truck volumes confronted pressures.
Inside the PV phase, home gross sales posted a modest development price of roughly 3% YoY, though efficiency diversified. Some segments, resembling SUVs, noticed strong development, whereas others, significantly entry-level vehicles, reported declines. Sturdy PV gross sales development was noticed amongst a number of producers, though choose manufacturers reported flat or unfavorable outcomes, tempering total positive aspects.
Within the CV phase, home dispatches rose barely, up 1% YoY and 9% MoM. Whereas demand for buses drove development, medium and heavy industrial vehicles lagged, with development forecasts for FY25 remaining low because of excessive base results, restricted fleet utilization, and average alternative demand. Anticipated development for CVs is anticipated to stay within the low single digits.
The 2-wheeler phase continued its sturdy efficiency, with total dispatches rising roughly 13% YoY. Home 2W gross sales elevated by 11% YoY, whereas exports additionally noticed a notable rise. Elements contributing to 2W development embody pent-up demand in rural areas, new mannequin introductions, and festive season promotions.
Within the tractor sector, home wholesale volumes recorded an encouraging uptick of 29% YoY for October, supported by favorable agricultural circumstances resembling sturdy monsoon rainfall, improved reservoir ranges, and a profitable Kharif harvest. These circumstances, together with favorable Rabi season phrases, are anticipated to bolster tractor demand within the coming months.
Trying forward, the medium-term outlook favors development within the 2W phase over PV and tractor gross sales, whereas the CV phase stays cautious, with efficiency seemingly constrained by financial and industry-specific components.
IT:
In Q2 FY25, the IT providers sector (together with Tier-1 and Tier-2 firms) noticed continued restoration in working efficiency, with median sequential development at 2.0% in fixed foreign money, up from 1.2% within the earlier quarter. Reported development in USD phrases additionally improved, reaching 2.6% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 4.3% year-over-year (YoY), benefiting from favorable foreign money results. Progress momentum was broad-based, marking two consecutive quarters of stability, although some asset-intensive and consumer-focused verticals displayed softer outcomes.
The deal atmosphere remained strong, with deal complete contract worth (TCV) for each Tier-1 and Tier-2 corporations near USD 20 billion, displaying solely a minor lower from the earlier quarter’s USD 21 billion. Elevated discretionary spending and short-term tasks are anticipated to boost deal conversions, regardless of difficult macroeconomic circumstances. Consequently, annual contract worth (ACV) is prone to rise, aided by enhancing conversion charges.
Headcount additions confirmed substantial development, indicating constructive mid-term demand developments, with many firms attaining optimum utilization and decreasing subcontractor reliance. Nonetheless, ongoing geopolitical tensions might decelerate gross sales cycles and introduce extra scrutiny round deal closures. Whereas margins confirmed enchancment past expectations in Q2, the scope for additional positive aspects in FY25 could also be restricted because of wage hikes deferred to the second half and absolutely optimized value levers.
Income development for Tier-1 firms was at 1.4% QoQ in fixed foreign money, whereas Tier-2 firms outperformed at 2.9% QoQ, reflecting higher momentum within the latter. Progress throughout main verticals resembling BFSI, retail, manufacturing, and communications aligned for the second consecutive quarter, displaying constant sectoral restoration. Working margins have been secure, with Tier-1 firms attaining a slight 20 foundation level enchancment, whereas Tier-2 noticed a modest 30 foundation level decline because of compensation changes, which most corporations absorbed with restricted influence on margins.
Trying ahead, IT providers firms usually see stronger efficiency within the first half of the fiscal 12 months, with the second half usually impacted by seasonal furloughs and holidays. This 12 months, most Tier-1 corporations count on an analogous furlough impact to final 12 months, although some firms anticipate a milder influence. Sure Tier-2 corporations are optimistic about attaining industry-leading development, pushed by a powerful deal pipeline and development in choose verticals..
Metals:
In October 2024, Indian metal costs noticed a modest enhance of two.1% month-over-month (MoM), reaching ₹48,000 per tonne, whereas Chinese language metal costs surged by 7.4% MoM to $510 per tonne. The rise in metal costs was accompanied by a 4.9% enhance in coking coal costs, which reached $170 per tonne, pushed by expectations of enhancing metal demand. Nonetheless, Indian metal manufacturing in September 2024 decreased by 4.9% to 11.7 million tonnes, whereas Chinese language metal manufacturing additionally declined by 1.0% MoM to 77 million tonnes. International metal manufacturing confirmed an analogous downward development, falling by 0.8% MoM to 144 million tonnes.
One notable improvement was the 6.8% MoM and 25.9% YoY enhance in Chinese language metal exports, which reached the very best degree lately. This surge in exports, pushed by weak home demand in China, stays a priority for the worldwide metal market, as elevated exports from China might put stress on costs in different areas.
On the enter facet, home iron ore costs noticed a big enhance of 25.4% MoM to ₹7,400 per tonne, whereas worldwide iron ore costs declined by 4.3% MoM to $96 per tonne. Moreover, manganese costs fell by 25.6% MoM to ₹16,041 per tonne, reflecting a blended development in metal inputs.
Within the non-ferrous metals market, costs trended downward in October 2024. Aluminium costs decreased by 0.7% MoM to $2,592 per tonne, whereas copper and zinc costs fell by 3.3% and 0.8% MoM, respectively, to $9,506 and $3,031 per tonne. These declines have been attributed to weaker demand from consuming industries.
Trying forward, China’s metal manufacturing decline and report export ranges point out weaker home demand because of an ongoing slowdown within the Chinese language financial system. Nonetheless, the financial stimulus launched by China in October 2024 has supplied a constructive influence on each international and home metal costs. The sharp will increase in coking coal and home iron ore costs might put stress on the margins of some Indian metal firms within the coming quarter. Regardless of these challenges, home metal demand in India stays sturdy and is anticipated to develop by 8-10% in FY25.
Whereas the outlook for home metal demand stays constructive, the excessive valuations of metal firms restrict additional upside potential. Consequently, the outlook for the metal sector stays impartial.
Chemical compounds:
The chemical sector skilled a broad enhance in costs throughout October 2024, with a number of merchandise displaying constructive month-over-month (MoM) motion. A notable instance was the numerous rise in caustic soda lye costs, which surged from ₹35/kg to ₹43/kg, benefiting key {industry} gamers. The agrochemical sector is anticipated to see gradual demand restoration within the latter half of FY25, providing a possible development increase. Moreover, sure areas throughout the pharmaceutical sector are reporting strong development, significantly in specialised therapies. Corporations which can be advancing in complexity and scale are prone to see substantial long-term advantages.
Whereas some pricing developments have been constructive, others confirmed a blended image. Costs for Maleic Anhydride and Phthalic Anhydride fell by 3% MoM, resulting in a slight influence on producers in these segments. On the flip facet, TDI costs elevated by 5% MoM, which benefited producers on this market. Different commodities, resembling Heavy Soda Ash and Acetic Acid, additionally noticed a lower in costs, down by 3% and a pair of% MoM, respectively.
Trying forward, the commodity chemical substances phase is anticipated to take care of a gradual, range-bound development because of secure home demand. Nonetheless, competitors from Chinese language producers stays a big issue, persevering with to place stress on costs, particularly within the commodity house. Corporations targeted on high-value merchandise and people increasing their capabilities into extra advanced and scalable choices are anticipated to carry out higher than these counting on primary commodities in the long run.
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Essential occasions & updates
Just a few vital occasions of the final month and upcoming ones are as under:
- India’s infrastructure output grew by 2% year-on-year in September 2024, recovering from a 1.8% decline within the prior month.
- The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI hit 57.5 in October 2024, up from 56.5 in September, reflecting stronger output development and a surge in new orders, the quickest in almost 20 years.
- The HSBC India Companies PMI was revised as much as 58.5 in October 2024, surpassing the flash estimate of 57.9 and September’s studying of 57.7. It marked the thirty ninth straight month of development in providers, pushed by sturdy gross sales and demand, exceeding expectations of 58.3.
- The HSBC India Composite PMI rose to 59.1 in October 2024, up from 58.3 in September, marking 39 months of development. Stronger new orders in manufacturing and providers boosted gross sales and employment.
- India’s annual inflation price surged to six.21% in October 2024, up from 5.49% in September, exceeding expectations of 5.81% and reaching the very best degree in over a 12 months. This marks a continued deviation from the RBI’s 4% goal, intensifying expectations of delayed price cuts.
- The US Fed minimize their rate of interest by 0.25% this month.
Basic outlook:
India’s market outlook stays optimistic, regardless of dealing with a number of international and home headwinds. Key financial indicators level to a resilient and adaptive financial system that’s steadily shifting in the direction of sustainable development. Regardless of a difficult October, the home financial system is displaying indicators of underlying power, significantly inside sectors which can be experiencing structural transformations.
Whereas inflation rose to six.21% in October, pushed by meals costs and monsoon influence, stays manageable. The RBI’s vigilant financial coverage and secure foreign exchange reserves provide a strong buffer towards exterior shocks, particularly with foreign exchange reserves remaining effectively above the $600 billion mark. This offers the central financial institution with flexibility to handle foreign money fluctuations and inflationary pressures, instilling investor confidence in India’s macroeconomic stability.
India’s digitization push continues to realize momentum. The surge in UPI transactions to report highs is a constructive indicator of accelerating digital adoption throughout the nation. This alerts wholesome development within the providers sector, with the Companies PMI rising to 58.5 in October. The strong demand in providers, alongside India’s sturdy efficiency in manufacturing, highlights the nation’s numerous financial base, making it extra resilient to international downturns. Moreover, home energy consumption, although modest, displays a seasonal slowdown reasonably than a structural decline, pointing to regular demand restoration within the medium time period.
India’s excessive foreign exchange reserves place the nation as probably the most well-positioned rising markets globally. The resilience of those reserves, coupled with authorities reforms and strategic fiscal measures, is fostering investor optimism. The secure macroeconomic indicators, together with the supportive insurance policies, are prone to maintain India’s development trajectory intact, even amid international uncertainties.
In conclusion, whereas there are pockets of concern, India’s fundamentals stay sturdy. The restoration in providers, the rising digital financial system, and a strong fiscal and financial framework paint an optimistic image for the Indian market within the coming months. The nation is poised for regular development, and long-term buyers might discover favorable alternatives in sectors that capitalize on digital transformation, consumption, and infrastructure improvement.
Technical outlook.
The Indian fairness market presents an optimistic outlook because it navigates by way of short-term volatility. Whereas the foremost indices noticed vital declines in October 2024, the market is poised for a possible rebound, supported by sturdy technical indicators and favorable high-frequency knowledge factors in 2025.
The Nifty 50 index, having confronted a correction in October, is at present testing key help zones round 23,800-23,300. These ranges provide potential shopping for alternatives as they align with long-term bullish developments. A profitable rebound from these ranges might sign a transfer in the direction of the subsequent resistance zones close to 24,600-25,200, which can set off a extra sustained rally. A break above these resistance factors might pave the best way for additional upside momentum.
The broader market is witnessing elevated exercise in sectors aligned with India’s development story. The Companies sector, as indicated by the rise in Companies PMI to 58.5, stays a key space of power, and its continued growth helps a constructive technical outlook for shares associated to digital funds, IT, and shopper providers.
Different high-frequency indicators proceed to color an optimistic image for India’s long run market outlook. The secure upward trajectory in UPI transactions signifies that the digital financial system will stay a core development driver. The modest enhance in energy consumption additionally factors to resilience within the home financial system, at the same time as we transfer into winter. This stability is mirrored in India’s foreign exchange reserves, which, whereas barely decrease in October, stay at excessive ranges, offering a strong basis for the Indian Rupee and providing help to broader market sentiment.
The market has skilled a correction primarily because of disappointing q2 outcomes however because the valuation corrects it offers good alternative in some pockets.
Outlook for the International Market
US Market:
The U.S. Federal Reserve lately minimize rates of interest by 1 / 4 of a proportion level, decreasing the benchmark in a single day rate of interest to the vary of 4.50% to 4.75%. This transfer displays a recognition of a labor market that has “usually eased” whereas inflation continues to maneuver towards the central financial institution’s 2% goal. The Fed’s determination was unanimous, signaling confidence within the ongoing financial growth regardless of a cooling job market. The central financial institution is anticipated to proceed chopping charges, with projections putting the federal funds price between 3.00% and three.25% by the top of 2025. This ongoing easing of financial coverage will seemingly proceed to help financial exercise and investor sentiment.
The third-quarter earnings season within the US has largely unfolded as anticipated, with the financial system performing stronger than initially anticipated, regardless of current rate of interest cuts by the Federal Reserve. This strong development has allowed most firms to fulfill or exceed earnings expectations. Nonetheless, the main focus has shifted to fourth-quarter steerage, which has been extra conservative. Regardless of stronger-than-expected financial exercise, many companies are getting ready for a slowdown in This autumn, resulting in cautious income forecasts.
A constructive improvement has been the effectiveness of cost-cutting measures applied earlier this 12 months. These efforts have led to improved working margins, serving to firms which have reported strong earnings for Q3, even when their future outlooks are weaker. Whereas firms which have missed earnings expectations have seen vital declines in inventory costs, these with sturdy outcomes however conservative steerage have seen muted reactions. On condition that market valuations stay above truthful worth, near-term index appreciation is restricted, however the market might stay overvalued till earnings development catches up.
Outlook for Gold
Gold costs in India have continued to face stress, with current market actions indicating that this development might persist by way of mid-November. As of November 13, 2024, home gold costs reacted to India’s 14-month excessive inflation knowledge, whereas worldwide gold costs have additionally dipped to almost a one-month low. The mix of a powerful US greenback and a subdued international financial backdrop has exerted downward stress on the yellow steel.
On the worldwide entrance, gold costs on COMEX remained beneath $2,600, with a drop of $24, reflecting continued power within the greenback index. In India, gold costs fell by over ₹500 on the MCX, with 10 grams of 22K gold priced at ₹70,840, and 100 grams at ₹708,400. Gold slipped under ₹75,000 for the primary time since October 10, 2024. As the worldwide financial atmosphere stays difficult, with inflationary pressures and a powerful greenback, the present downtrend suggests additional weak spot in gold costs could also be seemingly. If COMEX gold stays under $2,600 and checks the $2,500 degree within the coming classes, home costs might fall in the direction of ₹72,000 per 10 grams.
Trying forward, whereas near-term weak spot might persist, we imagine gold will proceed to carry its attraction as a safe-haven asset all through 2024, significantly within the face of financial uncertainty and inflationary pressures. This makes gold a lovely choice for hedging towards inflation and foreign money volatility. As such, we preserve a impartial outlook for gold for the rest of the 12 months, anticipating its attraction to endure even when costs expertise short-term fluctuations.
What ought to Traders do?
The outlook for the Indian market in November 2024 presents a blended however cautiously optimistic image. Whereas there could also be some continued weak spot within the close to time period because of the ongoing promoting by international portfolio buyers (FPIs) and broader market volatility, a number of components counsel a possible restoration within the coming weeks. The intervention of home institutional buyers (DIIs), who bought ₹1.07 lakh crore value of Indian shares in October, has performed a vital position in mitigating the influence of FPI outflows. Moreover, mutual fund homes are sitting on a big conflict chest of ₹2 lakh crore, which offers ample help to the market if FPI promoting persists.
The festive season is anticipated to spice up home consumption, probably resulting in stronger Q3 outcomes for firms, significantly in sectors resembling retail, shopper items, and autos. This might present a much-needed constructive catalyst for the market within the close to time period. Moreover, the regulatory framework stays supportive, with the Reserve Financial institution of India (RBI) and different regulators prone to step in ought to there be any drastic market actions.
Technically, the Indian market is at present buying and selling across the 23,600 degree, and whereas there could possibly be some restricted draw back from this level, the sturdy home help ought to assist cushion the market. The 23,300-23,800 vary is seen as a key help zone, providing enticing entry factors for buyers. Given the elemental power of the Indian financial system, which continues to point out resilience, and the help from home buyers, any short-term dips current a chance for long-term buyers.
Disclaimer:
This text shouldn’t be construed as funding recommendation, please seek the advice of your Funding Adviser earlier than making any sound funding determination.
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