2:00PM Water Cooler 7/12/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Chicken Track of the Day

Nice Horned Owl, Racine, Wisconsin, United States. “Half manner by way of this recording, I used to be capable of find the GHOW roughly 20 m away, situated ~ 7-9 m up in an ash tree the place the trunk break up into two. Because it vocalized these atypical calls, it barely leaning ahead with tail barely raised with every phrase given (as a GHOW sometimes does when calling). Close to the tip of this recording, it switched to its extra acquainted name/’music’.”

Who? Who?

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

Good, respectable, and so forth., and so forth.:

Since Biden took workplace, the Pentagon finances has grown by $212 billion and the finances for social & financial applications has shrunk by $30 billion: pic.twitter.com/tQEfVVH6LQ

— Stephen Semler (@stephensemler) July 11, 2024

However not a problem, in fact.

2024

Lower than a half a 12 months to go!

RCP Ballot Averages: CTUTP

Second post-debate polling: No large swing to Trump that I can see. It will be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had precisely the identical impact as Trump’s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, each events are so dug in. In fact, the Biden “buzz” (yesterday) is unhealthy, and will but have an impact. And who, might I ask, is making the thrill? Swing States (extra right here) nonetheless Brownian-motioning round. In fact, it goes with out saying that these are all state polls, subsequently unhealthy, and a lot of the outcomes are inside the margin of error.

* * *

“Behind the Curtain: Committee to Unelect the President” [CTUTP] [Axios]. Necessary. Notice that Axios (just like the TImes, as we noticed two days agp) is a participant, not a journalistic enterprise as we sometimes perceive them (not that there’s something flawed with that). Additionally they have type: Their “scoop” of a “deluge” of post-presser defections turned out to be twelve, so you’ll be able to low cost to 25%. That stated, it’s an attention-grabbing article concerning the Flexians* making an attempt to take Biden down. I’m leaving out all of the names to make the constructions extra salient. “President Biden beat again the preliminary public marketing campaign by Democrats to oust him from the occasion’s presidential ticket, swiftly and decisively. However very-connected Democrats, largely veterans of the Obama and Clinton administrations, are plotting hourly to get him to withdraw rapidly…. This free anti-Biden community is rising by the day — and is circulating polls displaying Democrats would shoot from positive losers to massive winners with a brand new ticket. Some donors are speaking of a large monetary dedication to any non-Biden presidential ticket.” And the technique: “These Democrats see the race in stark, black-and-white phrases: Simply three states matter — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. That’s the Blue Wall, all of which Biden gained in 2020. They usually see an apparent resolution: Neglect the niceties of backing Biden and even Vice President Harris. Be ruthless about discovering the 2 individuals probably to win these three states.” Feels like (spook-adjacent) Huge Gretch for the Higher Midwest, to me; I feel she’d do properly in Pennsylvania, too. Extra: “Nobody is a couple of individual away from everybody else,” a central participant instructed us. And virtually all are one step away from former presidents Obama or Clinton.”** Extra: “Nobody’s positive the strain marketing campaign is working. All of it is dependent upon Biden, who controls the occasion’s delegates and can not be defeated for the nomination if he stays in — regardless of how bleak the outlook for November.” Emphasis within the authentic. And: “The committee contains… Former Obama aides, former Clinton advisers, elected Dems, swing-seat Dems (“That is the group that actually issues”), the donor class, late-night liberals, N.Y. Occasions Opinion, Biden aides busily leaking. Axelrod concludes: “President Biden is a historic determine, and a variety of that’s gonna be tainted if he persists and loses this race. The individuals round him have [a collective] a whole bunch of years of marketing campaign expertise. They know tips on how to interpret information. They know tips on how to learn the second. It’s only a query of whether or not their affection for him clouds that.” • So far as deciphering information, we are able to throw out all of the Clintonites after 2016. And I don’t assume the donor class, late-night liberals, or N.Y. Occasions Opinion know something about information in any respect. Frankly, if these excresences have been scraped from the Democrat Occasion, it and the nation could be higher off. Who precisely do these individuals symbolize however themselves?

NOTE * Janine R. Wedel, “Past Battle of Curiosity: Shadow Elites and the Problem to Democracy and the Free Market,” Polish Sociological Assessment. “Flexians exhibit the next 4 options: One, they personalize paperwork, working throughout authorities, enterprise, assume tanks, media, and nationwide borders in pursuit of their very own agendas…. Two, flexians privatize data, whereas branding conviction. Flexian’s cachet is in data: their entry to and management of official (or should-be official) data… Three, flexians juggle roles and representations. These operators share the sample of overlapping, mutually influencing, and never all the time totally disclosed, skilled roles…. 4, flexians chill out guidelines on the interstices of official and personal energy. They flout each democracy and the free market. In so doing, they modify how enterprise is completed, both briefly or extra lastingly. The outcome, typically, is the interdependence of official and personal energy—the disappearance of battle of curiosity, as a result of the gamers outline the curiosity.” If you happen to have a look at all the “bold-faced names” within the Axios piece, Flexians they’re.

NOTE ** A Flex-Web, a community of Flexians. “Members of a flex internet obtain their shared targets partly by undermining the principles and customary sprocesses of the federal government they supposedly serve and supplanting them with their very own.” For instance, substituting a “mini-primary” for the actual (nonetheless flawed) major.

* * *

Let’s attempt to get our arms around the element with some buckets:

The Calendar

Lambert right here: The date for the mid-July digital conference has not been set, indicating that the succession disaster inside the Democrat Occasion has not been resolved. However–

“Is it too late for DNC delegates to desert Biden? A have a look at the Democrats’ nomination course of” [FOX]. “Although Biden has not indicated he plans to withdraw from the race, if he have been to take action, his delegates would now not be pledged to him. His withdrawal would result in an open conference, leading to Democrats with the ability to make options for potential nominees and forged votes till one candidate receives a majority of delegate votes. ‘Biden has a hammerlock on these delegates and alternates. Solely he can launch them if he needs, and he’s not gonna launch them,’ Craig Shirley, a presidential historian and biographer of former President Reagan, instructed Fox Information Digital.” True, Democrats might “vote their conscience” to “mirror the emotions of those that elected them,” however on present information (see charts under) meaning Biden. Extra: “A possible [note “potential”] date for Biden’s nomination is July 21, the day the Democratic Nationwide Conference’s credentials committee meets just about.” • That’s 9 days away. The CTUTP had higher get cracking!

“Democratic delegate guidelines, 2024: Pledged vs. computerized delegates” [BallotPedia]. “Pledged delegates are elected throughout primaries, caucuses, or occasion conventions, and should specific both a presidential candidate choice or an uncommitted choice as a situation of their election. Rule 13(J) of the Democratic Nationwide Committee defines a pledged delegate’s accountability: “Delegates elected to the nationwide conference pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience mirror the emotions of those that elected them.” Computerized delegates are unpledged delegates to the Democratic Nationwide Conference. Computerized delegates, who are sometimes known as superdelegates, will not be required to pledge their assist to any presidential candidate. Computerized delegates embrace members of the Democratic Nationwide Committee, Democratic members of Congress, Democratic governors, or distinguished occasion leaders, together with former presidents and vice presidents. They’re free to assist any presidential candidate of their selecting. Following the 2016 presidential election, the Unity Reform Fee was shaped to revise the Democratic nominating course of, together with decreasing the quantity and energy of computerized delegates. On the conclusion of the occasion’s nationwide conference on August 25, 2018, officers voted to undertake a measure banning computerized delegates from voting on the primary poll at a contested nationwide conference.”

“Democratic delegate guidelines, 2024: Changing a presumptive nominee earlier than the nationwide conference” [BallotPedia]. “The Democratic and Republican events don’t formally nominate candidates till delegates vote on the occasion’s nationwide conference. The Democratic Nationwide Conference will happen from August 19-22, 2024, and the Republican Nationwide Conference will happen from July 15-18, 2024. A celebration’s presumptive nominee, that means the candidate who receives an estimated majority of delegates after state nominating occasions, may very well be changed on the conference. Delegates might elect a candidate who they weren’t initially certain to on the time of their state’s election. Each state regulation and occasion guidelines govern how a delegate should vote on the nationwide conference, together with whether or not a delegate stays certain to a withdrawn candidate and for what number of rounds a delegate stays certain to a candidate.”

“Changing a nominee between the nationwide conference and the election” [BallotPedia]. Beneath Article 2 of The Bylaws of the Democratic Occasion, the Democratic Nationwide Committee (DNC) has the accountability to fill vacancies in presidential and vice presidential nominations between nationwide conventions. Within the occasion of a emptiness on the nationwide ticket, the chairperson would name a particular assembly. Beneath Article 2 § 8(d), questions earlier than the DNC, with some exceptions in any other case outlined within the constitution and bylaws, are decided by a majority vote of the DNC members who’re current and voting by proxy. The bylaws additionally state that voting to fill a emptiness on the nationwide ticket should proceed in accordance with procedural guidelines adopted by the Guidelines and Bylaws Committee and accredited by the DNC. You will need to word, nonetheless, that states require political events to submit names of presidential and vice presidential nominees and presidential electors earlier than election day with a purpose to certify them for the overall election poll. Deadlines differ by state and rely upon the election calendar, together with early voting, voting by mail, and absentee voting concerns.”

Lambert right here: Getting the Biden’s pledged delegates to “vote their conscience”, a ground battle, or “declaring a emptiness” will take take planning, time, and energy, throughout the whole occasion. Who’s doing that within the CTUTP?

* * *

Workers modifications take time and trigger friction:

A few of the reporting is cryptic, however one of many elements maybe influencing everybody’s conduct is that Biden’s workers would presumably wish to be “in cost” or closely concerned in a Harris marketing campaign, whereas donors and so forth. could be inclined to completely clear home.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 11, 2024

The DNC

“DNC Chair Jaime Harrison: No Doubt In anyway That Biden Ought to Be Nominee, “Lock Your Knees”” [RealClearPolitics]. Harrison: “Pay attention, 14 million individuals in 50 states, in our 5 territories, in DC, and our Democrats overseas went to the polls, did caucuses, and voted for Joe Biden to be our nominee. With none hesitation and equivocation, I’m saying Joe Biden, who had over 90% of the delegates to the DNC conference, is the nominee for our occasion. So of us, it’s time to comply with the lead of the CBC. It’s time to comply with the lead of the CHC and what we noticed with labor yesterday. It’s time to lock your knees, stiffen your spines, and get on board to assist this president. If you happen to’re spending extra of your time on TV speaking about Joe Biden than speaking about Donald Trump and Undertaking 2025, of us, you bought to do a course correction.” • Harrison got here up by way of Clyburn’s operation. Extra from Harrison:

As soon as once more if you wish to gauge whether or not somebody can do the job… then dammit have a look at how they’ve been doing it for the previous 3.5 years!

Some of us all the time trying round for the latest factor when we now have had essentially the most transformational president/vp duo within the final 40… https://t.co/vcvfu5lhCe

— Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) July 11, 2024

And:

We have to elect President @JoeBiden as a result of he’s a president who Will get. Stuff. Completed. pic.twitter.com/KbDjz3Bh56

— Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) July 11, 2024

Laborious to stroll again from.

From the hustings:

“As leaders of the Democratic Occasion representing New England, the Mid Atlantic states, Washington, DC and Puerto Rico, we strongly assist Biden/ Harris.”

The DNC Japanese Area Caucus govt committee unanimously helps President Biden and VP Harris. pic.twitter.com/avebeycSZg

— Raymond Buckley 👨‍⚖️🫏🌊 (@ChairmanBuckley) July 11, 2024

I want to trace down different statements like this (if any).

“Former DNC chairperson shares assist for Biden” [Associated Press]. “One other distinguished Black Democrat is making clear that she gained’t bounce ship on President Biden. Donna Brazile, the previous Democratic Nationwide Committee chairwoman who managed Al Gore’s presidential marketing campaign in 2000, stated in a short interview Friday that she is ‘ridin’ with Biden’ and that he stays capable of do the job and marketing campaign successfully to maintain it. ‘I don’t know once we all determined {that a} president must be excellent,’ she stated. ‘It’s not like he’s out on bail and carrying 34 felony convictions.’”

Electeds

“Obama, Pelosi privately expressed issues over Biden” [CNN]. “Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi have spoken privately about Joe Biden and the way forward for his 2024 marketing campaign. Each the previous president and ex-speaker expressed issues about how a lot tougher they assume it’s turn into for the president to beat Donald Trump. Neither is kind of positive what to do. Democrats are determined for the dispiriting infighting to finish to allow them to get again to making an attempt to beat the previous president. They usually’re begging both Obama or Pelosi to assist them get there, conscious that Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer doesn’t have the belief of Biden and that Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries doesn’t have the depth of relationship to ship the message. CNN spoke with greater than a dozen members of Congress, operatives and a number of individuals in contact with each Obama and Pelosi, a lot of whom say that the tip for Biden’s candidacy feels clear and at this level it’s only a matter of the way it performs out, even after Thursday night time’s information convention.” • For “a number of individuals” see the dialogue of Flexians and Flexnets on the opening of this part.

“Superdelegates” [Steve Waldman, Interfluidity]. “The one individual with any democratic mandate to decide on a successor to Joe Biden as Democratic Occasion nominee is Joe Biden himself, who gained a Democratic Occasion major open to the general public at-large. Placing apart endlessly contestable arguments about legitimacy, the entire level of switching horses is threat administration. The one motive Joe Biden would and will step down is that if he’s positive his alternative would have a a lot stronger shot of successful the overall election. Throwing the cube on an unpredictable disorganized contest, one which may turn into bitterly divisive and even encourage rioting or violence at a Chicago Democratic Occasion conference, doesn’t meet that bar. By the point of the conference, the identification of the Democratic nominee shall be a fait accompli. Not-really-elected delegates won’t determine, and mustn’t determine. There are two supedelegates. They’ll determine. The primary superdelegate, in fact, is Joe Biden himself. The second superdelegate is Kamala Harris. No change of ticket can happen with out Harris’ enthusiastic endorsement. One option to win her endorsement is to place Harris on the head of the ticket. That could be an inexpensive choice! However observers underestimate Harris by presuming that she herself — me! me! me! — is the one different candidate that she would endorse. Harris ran in a Presidential major, and withdrew rapidly when she realized the electoral stars wouldn’t align for her. The Biden-Harris Administration will research the politics of potential tickets as finest it may. There could also be some extent of bias, some tendency to overestimate the strengths and underestimate the deficiencies of a Harris-led ticket. However some extent of bias shall be a restricted diploma of bias. If the Biden-Harris Administration comes internally to a conclusion {that a} completely different candidate would have a a lot stronger shot, Harris shouldn’t be such an egotist that she’s going to threat throwing the nation to Donald Trump in trade for a lottery ticket to turn into President. In fact, Harris will negotiate a cupboard place for herself, or a quiet promise of favorable consideration ought to a emptiness come up on the Supreme Court docket. However she won’t stand implacably in the best way of whomever the administration determines to be the strongest contender. The probably consequence of all of that is simply what it was earlier than the depressing debate. Almost definitely, the overall election shall be a contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.” • I really like the concept of shopping for off Kamala with a Supreme Court docket seat.

“Home Democratic Chief Hakeem Jeffries met privately with President Biden” [Associated Press]. “Jeffries of New York stated in a letter to colleagues Friday that he met with the president Thursday night and ‘instantly expressed the total breadth of perception, heartfelt views and conclusions concerning the path ahead that the Caucus has shared in our latest time collectively.’” • No matter “the trail ahead” could be.

CBC, Black Ladies

“Rep. Clyburn: Let Biden ‘make his personal determination about his future’” [WaPo]. “When requested whether or not the dialog inside the Democratic Occasion ought to proceed about Biden’s future, he replied, ‘No.’ ‘The dialog ought to deal with the document of this administration, on the choice to his election and let Joe Biden proceed to make his personal selections about his future,’ stated Clyburn, a staunch ally of the president. ‘He’s earned that proper, and I’m going to offer him that a lot respect.’ The feedback a day after Biden participated in a high-stakes information convention echo people who former Home speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) made this week when she didn’t instantly name for Biden to step apart however subtly reframed the dialogue. She indicated that, regardless of Biden’s insistence, the matter of his candidacy was not settled.” • And we nonetheless don’t understand how Pelosi will train the choice she created.

“Black Democrats are emblematic of a Home torn over Biden” [WaPo]. “The Congressional Black Caucus — roughly 60 Home Democrats who symbolize Biden’s fiercest champions — earlier this week appeared to publicly embrace the president, even earlier than a digital name through which he promised to have their “backs” in the identical manner Black Democrats have all the time had his. Non-public conversations recommended an announcement of assist from the essential bloc was imminent after a faltering debate efficiency two weeks induced panic that the president couldn’t beat Donald Trump in November. However that assertion by no means got here. Following their Wednesday luncheon, many Black Home Democrats began to voice personal issues about Biden’s electability and the potential downstream results on weak lawmakers operating in swing districts, 4 individuals accustomed to the discussions stated. And there was elevated finger-pointing on the White Home and people in Biden’s orbit who members imagine will not be correctly guiding the president by refusing to deal with points that may resonate of their districts and assist solidify assist for Biden. Some are suggesting workers modifications ought to be made.” • Sounds just like the workers modifications are the important thing ask…

AKA is a strong Black sorority:

🧵🧵🧵I spent the day on the AKA conference in Dallas the place VP Harris spoke and I’m nonetheless exhausting pressed to discover a Black voter who thinks it’s a good suggestion to push President Biden off the ticket even people who find themselves mega followers of Harris. I’m simply not listening to this from Black voters.

— Eva McKend (@evamckend) July 11, 2024

Donors

“Biden admin opens line with crypto trade amid icy relations” [The Hill]. “The Biden administration opened a line with the cryptocurrency trade Wednesday, because the White Home and Democrats discover themselves more and more at odds with highly effective gamers within the digital property house. Anita Dunn, a senior adviser to President Biden, met with dozens of crypto leaders in her private capability on Wednesday at a roundtable organized by crypto-friendly Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.).” • Ka-ching! Take that, Hollywood!

The Spooks

No “deluge,” nonetheless:

Moments after Biden presser ends, the highest Democrat on Home Intelligence calls on Biden to step apart. https://t.co/sJdyumGroE

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) July 12, 2024

Mark Warner hasn’t come throughout my feed just lately. Am I lacking one thing?

* * *

Trump (R): “Trump on Cruise Management Earlier than Conference” [The Bulwark]. “Rep. Mike Waltz, a Florida Republican who flew to the Doral rally with different members of the state delegation and frolicked with Trump, stated it was “outstanding” to see how calm the candidate is. Waltz co-chaired the Republican Nationwide Conference’s platform committee and stated Trump personally edited the platform doc twice and made positive it was written in a extra colloquial type (it seems like one among his speeches, the Washington Put up famous). This 12 months’s doc differs markedly from the earlier platform (which dates from 2016 as a result of the occasion determined to not undertake a platform in 2020). Its size was decreased from 66 pages to 16, and the prior platform’s opposition to homosexual marriage was eradicated. It additionally, as Joe Perticone notes in Press Move at the moment, deemphasizes abortion, a giant concern for Trump, who realizes it’s a general-election drag for Republicans. And it contains his name for mass deportations of unlawful immigrants, a well-liked concern in line with polls, even with Hispanic voters. When Trump talked about the concept at his Tuesday rally, the closely Hispanic crowd applauded.”

* * *

Biden (D): “Biden Opens Two-Entrance Struggle in Bid to Save 2024 Reelection Bid” [Bloomberg]. “On Friday, he’ll head to a marketing campaign occasion in Detroit, taking that effort to the essential swing-state of Michigan. Subsequent week, he’ll look to shore up his standing with key Democratic blocs with a cease Monday in Austin to mark the sixtieth anniversary of the Civil Rights Act — an try and additionally counterprogram the Republican Nationwide Conference which begins that day. That shall be adopted by visits to the NAACP Nationwide Conference and a gathering of Latino activists.” • This jogs my memory of a passage from Parkinson’s Legislation, on engineering succession with no disaster:

The issue, it’s now clear, is to make X retire on the age of 60, whereas nonetheless capable of do the work higher than anybody else. The instant change could also be for the more severe however the different is to don’t have any doable successor at hand when X lastly goes. And the extra excellent X has proved to be, and the longer his interval of workplace, the extra hopeless is the duty of changing him. On this, as in so many different issues, trendy science shouldn’t be at a loss. The crude strategies of the previous have been outdated. In days passed by it was typical, little question, for the opposite administrators to speak inaudibly at board conferences, one merely opening and shutting his mouth and one other nodding in obvious comprehension, thus convincing the chairman that he was truly going deaf. However there’s a trendy approach that’s far simpler and sure. The strategy relies upon primarily on air journey and the filling in of varieties. Analysis has proven that full exhaustion in trendy life outcomes from a mixture of those two actions. The excessive official who’s given sufficient of every will very quickly start to speak of retirement. It was once the customized in primitive African tribes to liquidate the king or chief at a sure level in his profession, both after a interval of years or in the intervening time when his important powers appeared to have gone. These days the approach is to put earlier than the good man this system of a convention at Helsinki in June, a congress at Adelaide in July, and a conference at Ottawa in August, every lasting about three weeks.

We’ll see how Biden holds up on the path.

Biden (D): “Kalamazoo, Michigan Democratic Voters: ‘Relieved, He Ought to Keep In’” [RealClearPolitics]. “Biden voters at a Western Michigan senior heart supply largely constructive opinions on the president’s Thursday press convention with CNN’s Gary Tuchman. Two stated Biden did about in addition to they anticipated on Thursday, whereas 5 stated it was higher than they anticipated. One who appreciated Biden however was in the end undecided stated she was ‘relieved’ and Biden ‘ought to keep in’ the race. A second beforehand undecided voter stated: ‘The identical, I feel he’s the logical selection.’ One who stated Biden ought to ‘cross the torch,’ stated: ‘I feel he conveyed extra defensiveness versus confidence, and I feel we’re actually craving to be assured concerning the candidate.’ ‘I feel Joe Biden did a wonderful job,’ one other pro-Biden voter stated, ‘I’ve all the time been assured.’” • A tiny focus group of older white girls, but additionally an indicator that Biden has suffered no slippage in that demographic FWIW.

Biden (D): “Take a cognitive check NOW, Joe: You owe it to the voters and America” [New York Post]. “President Biden ought to hear instantly to Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who stated Wednesday: “I don’t assume that it will harm” for the embattled prez to take a cognitive check. That’s an early contender for understatement of the millennium. And Biden’s ongoing refusal to get examined — or at the very least launch the outcomes of any secret ones he’s had — quantities to a direct and brazen mislead the voters he’s asking to belief him with 4 extra years in essentially the most highly effective political workplace on this planet.” • Huge Gretch slips within the shiv. Factor is, these verbal slips aren’t in the identical class as cog slippage equivalent to 51 million individuals within the debate:

I am sufficiently old to keep in mind that George W. Bush would puke up garbled nonsense each time he opened his mouth & the whole institution would rush to guarantee us that it was only a charming quirk & he was actually good & competent regardless of appearances.

— David Roberts (@drvolts) July 12, 2024

We Democrat bloggers did limitless dogpiling on Bushisms, plus armchair psychology, and it by no means amounted to a hill of beans. This facet of the present dogpile — not all elements — jogs my memory of that.

Biden (D): “Biden Can’t Spin His Manner Out of This” [Peggy Noonan]. “I don’t agree with the narrative that what was revealed within the debate was a sudden and dramatic decline. What he has been displaying, for at the very least two years, is a gradual and unstopping decline. In January 2022 we frightened right here concerning the president’s propensity for ‘unfinished sentences, non sequiturs; typically his ideas seem to be bumper automobiles crashing and forcing one another off beam.’ In April 2022 we wrote of a ballot in New Hampshire that requested if Joe Biden was bodily and mentally as much as the job if there’s a disaster. Fifty-four p.c stated, ‘not very/in no way.’ In June 2022 we stated there’s a broad sense it’s not going to get higher: ‘He has poor judgment and he’s about to hit 80 and it’s not going to alter.’ Voters really feel ‘unease.’ In December 2022: Mr. Biden doesn’t assume he’s ‘slipping with age,’ however he’s flawed. ‘He’s displaying age and it’ll solely worsen, and he’ll turn into extra ridiculous, when he’s deeper into his 80s.’ Trusted Biden intimates should inform him to get out of the race. ‘You removed Donald Trump. You bought us out of Afghanistan. You handed large FDR-level payments that reworked the social security internet. . . . You probably did your job in historical past. You fulfilled your function. And now you must exit an inspiration.’ In September 2023 Mr. Biden had been busted within the press for telling tall tales that didn’t try. We famous that whereas repeated mendacity is ‘a characterological fault, not figuring out you’re mendacity would possibly recommend a neurological one.’ ‘The age drawback will solely worsen.’ ‘In insisting on operating he’s making a historic mistake. . . . He isn’t as much as it.’ What we noticed within the debate isn’t new. That’s why voters gained’t settle for the concept it was only a unhealthy night time. They assume it’s been a foul and worsening two years.” • Commentary:

Many people who needed to look after individuals in cognitive decline, noticed what was clearly occurring with Joe Biden 4 years in the past. We noticed it then and we positively see it now. https://t.co/x1Btmo2ui1

— AshleyStevens (@The_Acumen) July 12, 2024

“After Biden’s debate efficiency, the presidential race is unchanged” [NPR]. “The race for the presidency stays statistically tied regardless of President Biden’s dismal debate efficiency two weeks in the past, a brand new nationwide NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist ballot finds. Biden truly gained a degree since final month’s survey, which was taken earlier than the controversy. On this ballot, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. However Biden slips when third-party choices are launched, with Trump holding the slightest benefit with 43% to 42%. These numbers, although, don’t symbolize statistically important variations, because the margin of error within the survey is +/- 3.1 proportion factors, that means outcomes may very well be 3 factors larger or decrease. The ballot additionally discovered that, at this level, no different mainstream Democrat who has been talked about as a alternative for the president on the ticket does higher than Biden.” • This text has a variety of attention-grabbing charts:

On potential replacements for Biden:

You’ll be able to argue that Biden will, because it have been, depreciate sooner than the opposite three. However how a lot earlier than November (except Jon Stewart panics the workers they usually flip the marketing campaign path right into a loss of life march).

On psychological health (helps Nooners):

On whether or not it’s higher for a President to be outdated, or to be a liar (goes unmentioned by Nooners):

On character usually:

Fascinating that with independents, character is just about a wash.

<— Our Famously Free Press

–>

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

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Keep protected on the market!

Maskstravaganza

Masking ideas:

Earloop-wearing #YallMasking pals, I wish to share some ideas to enhance match & consolation of your respies. Pls be aware of gaps between your face & your respie nonetheless small (particularly within the nostril bridge space). If you happen to can, do a DIY match check to examine for leaks. Keep protected! ✊😷💜 pic.twitter.com/diwTgLwCZk

— A. 🇵🇭🇪🇸🏳️‍🌈😷🍉💜 (@coffeeteanxiety) July 11, 2024

Censorship and Propaganda

Trading Economics]. “Producer Costs in america elevated to 144.40 factors in June from 144.08 factors in Could of 2024. Producer Costs in america averaged 117.06 factors from 2009 till 2024, reaching an all time excessive of 144.40 factors in June of 2024 and a document low of 100.20 factors in November of 2009.”

The Bezzle: “AT&T says hacker stole some information from ‘practically all’ wi-fi clients” [ABC]. “AT&T has introduced that the corporate believes a hacker stole information of calls and texts from practically all of AT&T’s wi-fi clients, in line with a monetary submitting from the corporate. ‘The information doesn’t include the content material of calls or texts, private data equivalent to Social Safety numbers, dates of beginning, or different personally identifiable data,’ AT&T stated of their assertion launched early Friday morning. ‘These information determine the phone numbers with which an AT&T or MVNO wi-fi quantity interacted throughout these durations, together with phone numbers of AT&T wireline clients and clients of different carriers, counts of these interactions, and mixture name length for a day or month.’”

As we speak’s Worry & Greed Index: 57 Greed (earlier shut: 51 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 52 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jul 12 at 12:26:44 PM ET.

Class Warfare

“Past kingdoms and empires” [Aeon]. “Up to date historians inform us that, by the beginning of the Widespread Period, roughly three-quarters of the world’s inhabitants have been dwelling in simply 4 empires (we’ve all heard of the Romans and the Han; fewer of us, maybe, of the Parthians and Kushans). Simply take into consideration this for a minute. If true, then it implies that the good majority of people that ever existed have been born, lived and died below imperial rule…. However the place do the statistics come from, to assist such grand claims? Are they dependable? Enterprise down into the footnotes, and also you uncover that everybody is citing the identical supply: an Atlas of World Inhabitants Historical past, revealed in 1978; in equity, Scheidel does present one extra quotation, to Joel Cohen’s How Many Folks Can the Earth Help? (1995), however this seems to comprise a chart displaying estimates of previous human inhabitants sizes through which all figures for the premodern period derive from, once more, the Atlas of World Inhabitants Historical past or from subsequent publications based mostly on it. In mild of all this, anybody at the moment who consults the Atlas of World Inhabitants Historical past for the primary time is in for a shock. It’s an unassuming tome, and a really outdated one at that. It includes simple-to-read inhabitants graphs for various world areas, accompanied by pithy essays, which typically verge on the laconic. There may be additionally an Appendix on ‘Reliability’ that begins: ‘The hypotheses of the historic demographer will not be, within the present cutting-edge, testable and consequently the concept of their being dependable within the statistician’s sense is out of the query.’” Hmm. And (unsurprisingly for individuals who learn 1491: “t’s take the instance of the Amazon rainforest, an space of properly over 2 million sq. miles, with no historical past of empire till the European conquest, and which the Atlas characterises as one more demographic backwater, thinly scattered with nomadic foragers, whose mode of livelihood (its authors assumed) might by no means assist dense populations. How does this maintain up at the moment? It doesn’t. Over the previous decade, archaeologists have been busily turning the entire image on its head, utilizing airborne lasers to see by way of the forest cover. Tropical landscapes that resisted terrestrial survey are giving up their secrets and techniques. Rather than blanks on the map, we’re now capable of see extremely cultivated landscapes with large infrastructure stretching again to the early centuries BCE. Street networks, terraces, ceremonial earthworks, deliberate residential neighbourhoods, and regional settlement methods ordered into patterns of geometrical precision could be traced throughout Amazonia, from Brazil to Bolivia, so far as the jap foothills of the Andes. In sure components of Amazonia, the forest itself seems to be a product of previous human interplay with the soil.” • Perhaps the empires will collapse, however that doesn’t imply every part will collapse? Or at the very least not in the identical manner?

Information of the Wired

I’m not feeling wired at the moment.

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are high-quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “With a 5.6 aperture, there’s a fairly shallow depth of discipline right here. In reality you could be considering, ‘No, Tracie, you moved the digital camera.’ At all times a chance with me. 😊”

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets: