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2:00PM Water Cooler 7/11/2024 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Readers, I hope that is the final time I need to ask you to be affected person, at the very least for awhile. As a result of I kmew I might be touring, I did a great deal of work early, and so I hope I don’t miss something important. For individuals who rejoice, Biden’s important NATO presser is at 5:00pm, previous press time, sadly. Maybe readers will remark. –lambert

Hen Music of the Day

Nice Horned Owl, Bubo virginianus, Hato El Milaglro, Cojedes, Venezuela. “Pure tune by pair.” Feels like a kazoo in the beginning!

Who? Who?

* * *

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Biden Administration

Good, respectable, and many others., and many others.:

However not a problem, in fact.

2024

Lower than a half a yr to go!

extra right here) nonetheless Brownian-motioning round. After all, it goes with out saying that these are all state polls, subsequently unhealthy, and a lot of the outcomes are throughout the margin of error. It could be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had precisely the identical impact as Trump’s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, each events are so dug in.

* * *

Let’s attempt to get our arms around the element with some buckets:

The Calendar

Calendar is first for a purpose.

Balloting:

From one county clerk:

Digital Conference:

“How the calendar favors Joe Biden” [Politico]. “Whereas there are technically 40 days remaining till the conference formally begins, the window for changing Biden is definitely a lot tighter because the get together plans to designate Biden because the nominee in a digital roll name that takes place upfront of the particular conference. . (The Democratic Nationwide Committee voted to maneuver ahead with a digital roll name earlier than the calamitous June 27 presidential debate, in response to a menace from Ohio Republicans that will have stored Biden off the poll there).” • Observe, nonetheless, that the date has not been set, exhibiting that the correlation of forces throughout the Democrat Celebration has not but resolved.

The NATO Presser:

“”How the calendar favors Joe Biden” [Politico]. ” Biden has made clear in latest days he intends to be the nominee — and the obvious hurdle standing in his manner in the meanwhile is one other meltdown in a high-stakes scenario. There aren’t a lot of these possibilities left earlier than the Democratic conference kicks off in mid-August. . Subsequent week, there’s a televised interview with NBC Information anchor Lester Holt scheduled for Monday, however Biden has already proved he can meet that bar. He didn’t obtain rave opinions for his interview final week with ABC Information’ George Stephanopoulos, nevertheless it didn’t harm his trigger. In any case, beginning this weekend, the media oxygen will probably be sucked up by the Republican Nationwide Conference and the rollout of Trump’s vice presidential nominee. And since Congress will probably be out of session, Democratic members will probably be out of city, diminishing alternatives to hatch a consensus plan designed to persuade Biden to step apart.”

“Biden Faces Contemporary Calls to Withdraw as Democrats Concern Electoral Rout” [New York Times]. “Mr. Biden’s technique to save lots of his candidacy seems to be geared toward operating out the clock. And each day he defies stress to step apart makes the logistics of changing him tougher. On Wednesday, he appeared to have survived one other day, as Capitol Hill remained mired in a state of uncertainty and division throughout what lawmakers had deemed to be a important week for Mr. Biden’s marketing campaign. , which Democrats stated could be a important — and maybe last — take a look at of the president’s skill to remain within the race.”

“Immediately is Sport 7 for Joe Biden” [The Arena] “The Press Convention: Joe Biden should not solely give the efficiency of his life at his 6:30 PM press convention, however he has to alter the topic. I’m not suggesting he ‘wag the canine,’ however that instantly redirects everybody’s consideration to what issues most—who can do the job. Alternatively, if Biden’s press convention is mediocre, or heaven forbid, unhealthy, it’s over.”

* * *

“Three causes the calendar might be on Biden’s facet as divided Dems fret” [Roll Call]. “”Biden is outplaying all of his Democratic adversaries proper now. The President controls the calendar, the delegates, and finally the facility,” David Jolly, a former Republican Home member, stated in an e mail…. Biden marketing campaign aides for months have bragged they’ve a superior floor operation throughout the nation, however particularly within the six to eight battleground states that probably will determine the election. If Biden stepped apart, Democratic strategists this week stated it’s unclear if, or how a lot of, Biden’s state-by-state organizations would cleanly switch to the eventual nominee… That’s a purpose Jolly stated of congressional Democrats: ‘Except a number one Democrat launches an organized effort to flip 2,000 delegates on the [Democratic] conference, then they’re simply assembly to satisfy — and with no discernible technique to rally adversarial Democrats to.’ The huge Biden marketing campaign equipment is an enormous purpose why, if he sticks by his vow to run, Democrats might need to simply accept one other factor Pelosi stated Wednesday: ‘No matter he decides, we go together with.’” • The bottom recreation takes cash….

Electeds

Obama (and Clooney):

BFFs:

Good name:

Pelosi:

“Pelosi hints at one thing large coming” [The Editorial Board]. “he Occasions stepped in it this morning when it reported that former Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi stated, on ‘Morning Joe,’ that the president ought to ‘rethink’ his resolution to maintain operating. In response to the paper, she stated Joe Biden ‘ought to proceed to weigh the matter, after he made it clear this week that he’s dedicated to staying within the race.’ ‘Rethink’ is the issue. ‘Proceed to weigh the matter’ isn’t. She stated the latter, not the previous. That’s a extremely nuanced distinction, clearly, however the Occasions determined to interpret the anomaly in such a manner that matches into its narrative in regards to the president being too outdated to proceed operating for president, and the Democrats experiencing ‘deepening divisions’ over the query of whether or not he ought to. And for that, the Occasions earned this rebuke from Pelosi (per Jaala Brown, a Capitol Hill reporter for CBS Information): ‘I feel the president is nice. And there are some misrepresentations of what I’ve stated. I by no means stated he ought to rethink his resolution. The choice is the president’s. [lol]. But when that’s why you’re right here, it isn’t true.’” •

Lambert right here: I’ve been mentally evaluating Biden’s technique to the sport of “Rooster,” “by which two drivers drive towards one another on a collision course: one should swerve, or each could die within the crash, but when one driver swerves and the opposite doesn’t, the one who swerved will probably be known as a ‘hen’, that means a coward.” Supposing the highway to be straight, one profitable technique to get the opposite driver to swerve is to throw your steering wheel out the window — however you’ve acquired to do it first! That’s what Biden did on Sunday and Monday: “‘I’m not going anyplace.” In response, Pelosi, as we see above, served up one among her traditional phrase salads, from which we’d extract a Minimuim Viable Sign that achieved two objectives: (1) Calmed issues down ’til NATO was carried out (see dialogue of the NATO presser above) and (2) reminded Biden, by its very results, that his recreation of hen shouldn’t be linear, i.e. not a straight highway; there are greater than two dimensions to contemplate. There might be, say, snipers by the facet of the highway, able to shoot out his tires. There might be minions strewing caltrops on the highway itself. There might, who is aware of, be earth movers regrading the highway. Pelosi — who, allow us to bear in mind, is an knowledgeable at counting votes — has created choices for herself, and Biden should know she has created choices. Now, what Pelosi will train these choices, that I can’t say (besides, I ought to suppose, stop each drivers from dying). Maybe Biden will ace NATO presser. Or maybe not!

Obama and Pelosi

“Playbook: What Obama and Pelosi are doing about Biden” [Politico]. “, we’re instructed from individuals conversant in their alternate. The dearth of pushback is an eye-popping revelation on condition that the previous president was one of many first large voices defending Biden following his abysmal debate efficiency (whereas a lot of his former aides have been a number of the incumbent’s largest critics)…. In non-public conversations with lawmakers, we’re instructed, the previous speaker hasn’t tried to cover her disdain for the scenario that get together now finds itself in. She’s urged to people who Biden received’t win this November and may step apart, in response to a few half-dozen lawmakers and others who’ve spoken together with her or are conversant in these conversations. In actual fact, she’s suggested some Democrats in swing districts to do no matter they must do to safe their very own reelections — even when it means asking Biden to relinquish his place atop the ticket. Pelosi has suggested these members, nonetheless, to attend till this week’s NATO Summit is completed out of respect for Biden and nationwide safety writ giant. Some members, we’re instructed, have already began drafting statements of what they wish to say, able to drop as soon as overseas leaders go away city.” • Pelosi, in fact, denies all this….

The Squad:

That, plus AOC doesn’t wish to overthrow Pelosi, or something Pelosi represents; she desires to be Pelosi.

Bernie:

Query begging!

Random Democrats:

“Peter Welch turns into first Democratic senator to name for Biden to drop out” [Just the News]. “Welch stated his constituents are ‘afraid of one other Trump presidency,’ however who can change Biden because the Democratic nominee. Different Democratic senators have expressed worry over Biden’s reelection possibilities in opposition to Trump, however none apart from Welch have known as for him to exit the race. ”

Wait, maybe the Trump Risk isn’t existential? Not less than not for some electeds?

Black Ladies and Celebration Loyalists

“Stacey Abrams: Biden remains to be greatest wager in opposition to Trump” [Stacey Abrams, Atlanta Journal-Constitution]. “. A lot of the voters Biden has received and must win once more already know his foibles — they usually aren’t delivering droves to say, ‘I’m now voting for the bombastic fascistic liar.’ … Let’s be clear: The wishful advantages of a contested conference or a late-stage exit are vastly outweighed by the potential hurt. President Joe Biden has the integrity, ethical character and document wanted to beat Donald Trump in November. Our path to victory lies in standing by Biden and understanding the excessive stakes of this election.”

Maybe a greater supply:

Maybe an excellent higher supply:

Good of Ro to say:

Alternatively, “true believers”… Rhinoceros is an excellent play.

Donors

The place the heck was Clooney a month in the past:

Or, for that matter, the remainder of the good and the nice at Clooney’s fundraiser:

If I needed to choose a proximate trigger for the dogpile — not the entire mess, simply the dogpile — it woud be donors (whose stupidity and laziness is such that they know much less about Biden than any Bare Capitalism reader.) Why? As a result of they’re wealthy. Noboby says no to them. The signature: They suppose any downside — to be beneficiant, exterior no matter their restricted experience could also be — could be solved with cash. Sadly, that’s not true for the electoral calendar. So Clooney can dither for a complete month. And talking of George Clooney:

“US election 2024: Folks’s will or donors’ will?” [Al Jazeera]. “In Biden’s case, although, it’s noteworthy that the president’s alleged incompetence was solely elevated to the standing of Very Necessary Concern when donors acquired their panties in a bunch. This, although, previous to the controversy, an Ipsos ballot discovered {that a} mere 28 % of probably voters within the US had been assured in Biden’s ‘psychological health to be president’. Following the controversy, this determine dropped to twenty %. In brief, it’s simply one other reminder of the inordinate energy and affect wielded by America’s donor class in a shameless plutocracy euphemised as ‘democracy’ – the place voting and different democratic charades barely conceal a actuality by which the individuals’s will couldn’t matter much less.” • Why not simply dispense with the cumbersome and messy main course of and focus group the Forbes 500?

* * *

“‘It’s already disastrous’: Biden marketing campaign fundraising takes a serious hit” [NBC News]. “One of many individuals near the re-election efforts stated this week that the marketing campaign believed main donors who’ve threatened to leap ship after the controversy would come round — if solely to keep away from serving to former President Donald Trump by sitting out the race. Biden aides had stated privately that One of many sources stated a number of unplanned fundraisers had been within the early planning levels for the month.” • Problematic, then, that Biden’s strategists selected the costly floor recreation route.

“Dems worry Biden’s fundraising is ‘cratering’” [Politico]. “Biden is scheduled to look at a number of high-dollar fundraisers this month, together with one in Austin early subsequent week, and a West Coast swing is scheduled, in response to a supply conversant in the planning of the occasions.”

“After a Bruising Day, Biden Faces a New Check” [New York Times]. “Some donors stated they nonetheless backed Biden, together with Alex Soros, son of George Soros, and James Costos, a former HBO government who attended the Los Angeles fund-raiser.”

The Spooks

Biden is, in essence, saying: “Go forward and shoot me” (consistent with the sport of hen).

The Press

The savage irony is that if the Press will emerge extra highly effective than ever if, after declaring Biden’s cognitive skill an unstory for, properly, donkey’s years, they handle to take him down:

Skip this if NSFW materials offends or triggers you, however I can’t resist:

The Polls

“Biden’s poor debate efficiency had nearly no influence on voter desire, new report says” (press launch) [Northeastern Global News]. “Led by David Lazer, college distinguished professor of political science and pc science at Northeastern, the report signifies that the controversy had little if any influence on individuals’s voting desire. Lazer hopes the report helps illustrate the risks of creating a mountain out of a molehill with regards to the media deciphering knowledge. ‘Even the New York Occasions, which is normally higher about this, talked a few very tiny shift that was completely insignificant statistically prefer it was proof that it was a shift towards Trump after the controversy.’… Seeing the dominant narrative popping out of the controversy, Lazer and the crew at CHIP50 determined to check the speculation that Biden had misplaced floor in public opinion after the controversy. Notably, Lazer says, they didn’t survey two totally different cross-sectional teams of individuals earlier than and after the controversy like most polls. As an alternative, the crew was capable of survey the identical group of respondents from a survey performed earlier than the controversy. Lazer says utilizing the identical group of individuals helps make the outcomes extra exact, which is essential in polling that inherently has a margin of error. What the report finds is that Biden held on to 94% of the individuals who stated they’d assist him earlier than the controversy. For Trump, 86% of people that stated they’d assist him earlier than the controversy stated they’d achieve this after the controversy. ‘What we see is that there’s some churn –– perhaps 10 % or so of individuals change what they reply –– however that the web outcome shouldn’t be a motion away from Biden,’ Lazer says. ” • So Biden slipping a cog had the identical impact as Trump’s 34 million felony convictions?

“Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?” [FiveThirtyEight]. “It’s 120 days till Election Day, and our mannequin thinks the presidential election might go both manner. Proper now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in 492 out of 1,000 of our mannequin’s simulations of how the election might go, whereas former President Donald Trump wins in 505 of our simulations. There’s nonetheless a small likelihood of the pure chaos state of affairs: In 3 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral School votes, which might throw the election to the Home of Representatives. . This implies there’s a variety of uncertainty about the place the polls will find yourself on Nov. 5. In flip, the 538 election mannequin places a wholesome quantity of weight on non-polling components reminiscent of financial development and political indicators. Immediately these indicators recommend an final result nearer to a 3-point Biden win — clear in the wrong way of nationwide polls. 538’s give attention to uncertainty partially explains why our election forecast has not moved a lot in response to new nationwide polls exhibiting Trump gaining on Biden. In impact, we’re hedging our bets, placing extra weight on the so-called “fundamentals” as a result of we imagine the marketing campaign might be unstable or polls might be biased.” • Mannequin, FWIW.

“Monitoring 2024” [Morning Consult]. “[W[ith Biden forcefully telegraphing his intent to remain atop the ticket — and a critical mass of Democrats on Capitol Hill apparently falling in line for him, at least for now — I wanted to use today’s edition to highlight a shift in our tracking that seems most salient now. It’s our buzz metric, which tracks what voters have heard about certain politicians or issues over the past week. Voters have three options on this question: They can say whether what they’ve heard about a person or thing is mostly positive or mostly negative, or they can say that they haven’t heard anything at all. Of all of the post-debate data I’ve seen, it’s Biden’s buzz numbers from our last two surveys that are most jarring….. It’s a devastating shift that threatens to disprove what appears to be the Biden campaign’s prevailing theory for 2024: That ultimately this election, just like 2022 and 2020, will be more about Trump than it will be about Biden, benefiting Democrats just as it did in those past two elections.” • Handy chart:

“The Bonfire of the Democrats” [The Bulwark]. “However there’s one other thread that’s rising: voters evaluating Joe Biden to their growing old family members who received’t surrender their automobile keys. That’s not an analogy you wish to hear with democracy on the road. On Wednesday, these comparisons had been extra frequent than ever among the many voters I talked to—a bunch made up of those that solid ballots for Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 however had been now undecided. ‘I’ve seen firsthand how troublesome it’s to get, you already know, mother’s driver’s license or growing old mother and father’ license away from them,’ one participant stated. ‘What does that seem like when it’s the president of the USA?’ That is elementary to understanding voters’ fears about Biden’s age. They’re disinclined to provide him the good thing about the doubt as a result of many have seen this all earlier than. They don’t need their octogenarian father (or grandfather) operating the nation, not to mention driving a automobile. Most of those voters believed Biden ought to go away the race: ‘,’ one stated. ‘.’

* * *

the world’s oldest democracy, and the oldest political get together on the planet choose a Presidential candidate:

Alternatively:

At all times one thing to sit up for.

<— Our Famously Free Press

–>

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

* * *

* * *

Trading Economics]. “The buyer worth index in the USA rose by 3% year-over-year to 314.18 factors in June 2024, following a 3.3% improve in Might and under the market consensus of a 3.1% advance.”

Employment State of affairs: “ıUnited States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of individuals claiming unemployment advantages within the US fell by 17,000 from the prior week to 222,000 on the interval ending July sixth, reaching a brand new 5-week low, and under market expectations of 236,000. The declare depend was significantly under the elevated ranges from June however remained firmly above the averages from February to April.”

* * *

* * *

Immediately’s Concern & Greed Index: 52 Impartial (earlier shut: 57 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 44 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jul 11 at 11:22:01 AM ET.

Information of the Wired

“Engineering Rules for Constructing Monetary Techniques” [wasteman.codes]. “When knowledge is immutable, you have got a document of what the state of the system was at any given time. This makes it very easy to recompute the world from earlier states, as a result of no state is each misplaced.” Who desires that? The place’s the house for accounting management fraud? Extra: ” Despite the fact that that stability was incorrect, we wish an audit path of what the stability was at any given second.” • No, we actually don’t. I say use Excel.

* * *

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “We stopped at a yard sale in San Pedro (CA) over the weekend and the neighboring home had this candy little backyard.”

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So for those who see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In case you hate PayPal, you may e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on learn how to ship a test. Thanks!

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